Bullet briefing — Top takeover candidates

Merger talks between commodities giants Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTCPL:GLCNF) have fallen through, nixing what would have been the mining industry’s biggest-ever deal, but M&A activity in the space continues to heat up.

A new survey from TD Cowen identifies IAMGOLD (TSX:IMG,NYSE:IAG) as the year’s top takeover candidate, with close to 20 percent of the 58 respondents pointing to the company.

Artemis Gold (TSXV:ARTG,OTCQX:ARGTF) was in second place at 11 percent, while Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (TSX:ASCU,OTCQX:ASCUF) was third at 7 percent.

Almost all of the respondents, who included institutional investors and mining executives, said they expect to see more gold, silver and copper M&A in 2026 compared to last year.

We’ll have to wait and see how any potential deals play out, including Barrick Mining’s (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) planned initial public offering for its North American gold assets.

Newmont (NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM), Barrick’s partner at the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, said it is concerned about the management of the operation, and wants to see improvements — a clash between the two miners could end up disrupting Barrick’s plans.

From staking rush to global player

The modern diamond era in the NWT began in November 1991, when geologists Chuck Fipke and Stewart Blusson discovered 81 small diamonds at Lac de Gras. The find triggered the largest diamond staking rush in North American history and led to the development of the EKATI Diamond Mine, Canada’s first.

By 2004, more than 28 million hectares across the NWT and Nunavut had been staked. Canada rose to become the world’s third-largest diamond producer by value, behind Botswana and Russia, largely on the strength of the NWT’s output.

For decades, the sector generated thousands of high-paying jobs and helped build Indigenous-owned businesses across the territory. At its peak, more than 3,000 Indigenous workers were employed at the region’s three diamond mines.

Today, that foundation is starting to show cracks.

All pressure, no diamonds

Rio Tinto’s (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) Diavik mine, one of the pillars of the industry, is scheduled to close next month.

Although the company recently unveiled a rare 158.2-carat yellow diamond from the site last year, described by COO Matt Breen as a “miracle of nature,” the symbolic discovery cannot reverse the mine’s finite life.

In addition, De Beers ( a subsidiary of Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:NGLOY)) and Mountain Province Diamonds’ (TSX: MPVD,OTC:MPVD) Gahcho Kué mine has paused a project that would have extended operations from 2027 to 2030, raising concerns about its longevity.

Meanwhile, EKATI, owned by Australia’s Burgundy Diamond Mines (ASX:BDM), is battling financial distress after diamond prices fell at least 20 percent following its acquisition of the asset.

In the legislature this week, Monfwi MLA Jane Weyallon Armstrong warned of the consequences.

“The closure of Diavik and Gahcho Kué will have a significant impact on Tłı̨chǫ communities and today, the GNWT has no meaningful alternative,” she said.

Premier R.J. Simpson acknowledged the challenge. “We’re at a point now where we know the diamond mines are winding down, and the question has been: ‘OK, well, what’s next?’” he said in a recent interview.

Market headwinds multiply

The industry’s struggles are not simply a matter of geology. Natural diamond prices have been under sustained pressure, battered by several macroeconomic forces converging at once.

For instance, lab-grown diamonds—chemically identical to natural stones and available at a fraction of the price—have rapidly gained acceptance among consumers. What was once a niche product is now mainstream, particularly among younger buyers drawn to lower costs.

Canadian diamonds long marketed themselves as ethical alternatives to so-called “blood diamonds.” But synthetic stones can make similar claims, weakening one of the natural industry’s key selling points.

Luxury spending has also softened, and new trade barriers have added further strain. A 50 percent US tariff on Indian imports has disrupted the global polishing pipeline, since most rough diamonds are cut and finished in India before being sold into the US market.

The owner of EKATI has linked its financial difficulties in part to those tariffs, as well as to the broader collapse in natural diamond prices. The company recently received a C$115 million federal loan under a facility designed to assist businesses affected by US trade disruptions.

Even so, EKATI suspended parts of its operations last year and has faced criticism from workers over layoffs and severance payments. Burgundy has publicly acknowledged serious financial problems and indicated it may need additional funding if prices fail to recover.

At Gahcho Kué, Mountain Province Diamonds is navigating its own funding challenges. Acting president and CEO Jonathan Comerford said the company’s difficulties reflect “the prolonged weakness in the diamond sector.”

“In this environment, our focus remains on carefully managing costs, protecting liquidity, and making measured decisions to support the long-term sustainability of our operations,” Comerford said.

The company has received in-kind funding notices from joint-venture partner De Beers totalling approximately C$49.2 million related to unpaid cash calls.

Political pressure builds

Territorial leaders are also under growing pressure to respond.

Minister of Industry Caitlin Cleveland described the Gahcho Kué announcement as “serious news for the Northwest Territories.”

“Prices are weak, costs are high, and companies are having to make difficult calls,” Cleveland said in a recent statement. She emphasized that while the GNWT cannot control global markets, it will work to ensure worker supports are accessible and employers meet labour standards if job impacts occur.

But some structural issues are harder to address. Yellowknife North MLA Shauna Morgan questioned how the government can enforce socio-economic commitments made by mining companies when they established operations.

Simpson conceded that those agreements lack enforcement clauses such as fines.

“This is about building relationships and ensuring that we’re staying on top of this,” he said.

Meanwhile, calls for diversification are growing louder. “This announcement also reinforces a broader reality for our territory: our economic base remains too dependent on a single commodity,” Cleveland said.

Searching for the next chapter

There are hopes that critical minerals could help fill the gap. Exploration for rare earths and other strategic metals is increasing, reflecting global demand tied to electrification and defense technologies.

Weyallon Armstrong has argued that infrastructure, including expanded road connections from the Tłı̨chǫ region, could unlock new development corridors.

“We may not have a Ring of Fire, but we could have a frosty circle,” she said, referencing Ontario’s mineral-rich region.

Yet even optimistic observers acknowledge that no single project is likely to replicate the scale and stability diamonds once provided. For community leaders, the uncertainty is deeply personal.

“It’s kind of a scary situation,” Chief Fred Sangris of the Yellowknife Ndilo community of the Dene First Nation told the New York Times last year. “Where do we go from here? What’s the next project?”

Diamonds have long symbolized permanence. In the Northwest Territories, especially this Valentine’s season where icons of everlasting love dominate the market, that symbolism now feels more strained than ever.

Markets and commodities react

Canadian equity markets were mixed this week.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 2.88 percent over the week to close Friday (February 13) at 33,073.71, while the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) shed 0.48 percent to 991.99.

The CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) dropped 2.7 percent to 163.24

The gold price was largely flat, losing just 0.07 percent to close at US$5,032.68 per ounce on Friday at 4:00 p.m. EST. The silver price fared worse, closing the week down 8.43 percent at US$76.92 on Friday.

In base metals, the Comex copper price recorded a 2.35 percent decrease this week to US$5.83.

The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) was down 0.13 percent to end Friday at 583.86.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

​How did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Take a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stocks data for this article was retrieved at 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market caps greater than C$10 million are included. Mineral companies within the non-energy minerals, energy minerals, process industry and producer manufacturing sectors were considered.​

1. Trinity One Metals (TSXV:TOM)

Weekly gain: 104.55 percent
Market cap: C$12.83 million
Share price: C$0.45

Trinity One Metals is a silver exploration and development company with a portfolio of mineral projects, including the recently acquired Silver 1 project in Ecuador.

The property consists of the Silver-1 mine concession, which covers an area of 3,108 hectares and lies within the same mineral belt as Lundin Gold’s (TSX:LUG,OTCQX:LUGDF) Fruta Del Norte mine. Past mining at the site occurred between 1989 and 1994 and included 3,600 meters of underground development, along with a historic resource of 200,000 to 700,000 metric tons of ore averaging 400 to 800 grams per metric ton (g/t) silver and 3 g/t gold.

The company announced the closing of the property acquisition on February 4 for a total consideration of US$540,000. In the release, the company said it will work swiftly to confirm the historic resource to modern standards.

The news was followed on Tuesday (February 10), when the company announced a C$3.3 million non-brokered private placement, which was upsized to C$5.3 million on Thursday. The company said it will use proceeds from the placement to advance exploration projects across its portfolio.

2. Cordoba Minerals (TSXV:CDB)

Weekly gain: 74.68 percent
Market cap: C$123.82 million
Share price: C$1.38

Cordoba Minerals is an explorer whose flagship project is Alacran in Colombia. The asset is a 50/50 joint venture with JCHX Mining Management (SHA:603979). The 20,000 hectare property hosts copper, gold and silver mineralization across five deposits: Alacran, Alacran North, Montiel East, Montiel West and Costa Azul.

A feasibility study for the project released in February 2024 demonstrates an after-tax net present value of US$360 million with an internal rate of return of 23.8 percent and a payback period of three years.

The resource estimate for the Alacran deposit and historical tailings shows an indicated resource of 99.46 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 0.41 percent copper, 0.24 g/t gold and 2.65 g/t silver. Contained metal totals 904.53 million pounds of copper, 765,400 ounces of gold and 8.47 million ounces of silver.

Following the completion of JCHX’s earn in for 50 percent of the project in July 2025, Cordoba said it had entered into a definitive agreement to sell its remaining 50 percent interest in Alacran.

However, on January 2, the company reported that not all conditions for the sale had been met, and on Tuesday, announced that it had entered into an amended agreement.

Under the new terms, the closing payment was increased to US$128 million from US$88 million, payable in a lump sum at closing. The release states that the bulk of the cash payment will be distributed to shareholders after settling liabilities and obligations, with the company retaining US$10 million for corporate purposes.

3. Rio Silver (TSXV:RYO)

Weekly gain: 52.38 percent
Market cap: C$23.74 million
Share price: C$0.64

Rio Silver is an exploration company advancing its Maria Norte project in Peru.

The property has changed hands several times in the 18 years prior to Rio’s acquisition in March 2025, but has seen little exploration during that time. However, in a February 5 release, the company notes that historic mining occurred at the site due to the presence of a reclaimed waste dump. The property covers the western portion of the Tangana West vein system, and although it has not yet completed an economic assessment for the property. In the announcement, the company said it plans to advance surface mapping and sampling in the third quarter of 2026.

Throughout January, the company made several announcements regarding its exploration and development timeline. On January 6, the company reported results from technical work at the site, confirming the presence of silver mineralization with grades up to 991 g/t in a 0.7-meter channel sample.

The company also announced on January 29 that it was launching a metallurgical program at the site, which it said will assist the company in determining the project’s potential value.

4. Barksdale Resources (TSXV:BRO)

Weekly gain: 48.15 percent
Market cap: C$28.04 million
Share price: C$0.2

Barksdale Resources is a copper explorer focused on advancing its Sunnyside asset in Arizona, US. The property covers approximately 21 square kilometers, south of Tucson, Arizona. It hosts an intrusive complex that the firm believes to be an extension of the copper-zinc-lead-silver system found at South32’s (ASX:S32,OTCPL:SOUHY) Taylor deposit.

In 2025, the company achieved several milestones under its earn-in agreement and completed the initial 51 percent in September following a C$1 million cash payment. Prior to the payment in June, Barksdale said it would work toward increasing its interest in the property to 67.5 percent.

On January 21, the company announced plans to raise C$5 million to fund a Phase 2 drill plan required to increase its ownership stake in the Sunnyside project.

On Wednesday, Barksdale announced the opening of an additional private placement to raise C$930,000. Funds raised from this round will also be used to fund exploration activities at Sunnyside.

5. Pirate Gold (TSXV:YARR)

Weekly gain: 48 percent
Market cap: C$129.48 million
Share price: C$0.37

Formerly Sokoman Minerals, Pirate Gold is a discovery-oriented company with a portfolio of gold projects and one of the largest land positions in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.

It also owns a 40 percent stake in the Killick lithium project, a 40/40/20 joint venture with Benton Resources (TSXV:BEX,OTCPL:BNTRF) and Piedmont Lithium.

In October, the company combined its Moosehead and Crippleback claims to form the Treasure Island project, which hosts the largest mineral license and longest strike length along the Valentine Lake fault.

Along with new claims, Pirate Gold’s land holdings in the area cover approximately 58,775 hectares and host multiple untested anomalies identified through historic data and exploration efforts by Pirate Gold.

On Friday, Pirate Gold announced the initiation of project-scale surveys at Treasure Island, as well as the advancement of a 50,000 meter drill program, with two rigs mobilized to the site.

Additionally, the company also said it had received drill permits to operate at the Crippleback Lake and Stony Lake areas, which would allow it to extend its exploration beyond the current footprint at Moosehead and test other high-priority targets along the fault zone.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.